Every preseason, ESPN's Football Power Index generates thousands of possible season outcomes to test assumptions about contenders and pretenders. But what happens when you zoom in on a single simulation, one thread pulled from 10,000 possibilities? Per ESPN's reporting, simulation No. 9,187 offers a cautionary tale for two teams that entered Week 1 with considerable buzz.
The Bears, in their second year under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, were among the most popular preseason picks for a deep playoff run. But in this particular simulation, that growth never materialized. By Week 10, Chicago sat 3–6, with quarterback Caleb Williams still battling accuracy issues and the running game failing to replicate the efficiency it showed in 2025. The collapse was decisive enough that a postseason berth became mathematically unlikely, and the team never recovered.
The Texans, similarly positioned as potential AFC contenders heading into the season, met an equally bleak fate in this simulation: they too missed the postseason entirely, and per ESPN's reporting, not even marginally. Both teams' preseason momentum evaporated before the midpoint of the schedule.
ESPN emphasizes that this is neither an official prediction nor an endorsement from its analytics team. This is one outcome from 10,000 modeled possibilities—a single narrative thread in a vast tapestry of potential seasons. The simulation includes the story of how each outcome unfolded, occasionally with creative flourishes added to the data.
The exercise illustrates a fundamental truth about NFL forecasting: trendy preseason narratives can obscure roster fragility. Teams positioned as consensus sleeper picks often carry hidden vulnerabilities—injury risk, unproven quarterback play, or schemes that don't translate to the NFL's complexity. In this simulation, the Bears' offensive scheme and Williams's adjustment period proved too much to overcome; the Texans' situation remains unreported in the available sources.
What FPI's full projections suggest about 2026 remains available for review on ESPN's platform, offering a broader range of probabilities for how the season might unfold. But this single simulation serves as a stark reminder: not every hyped team's story ends with a playoff berth, even in a league where parity is supposed to reign.
This article synthesizes reporting from ESPN, NBC Sports, Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports. Top story: "2026 NFL season sim: Predictions, surprises, playoff teams" (ESPN).